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It turns out that my prediction of a Free Software JDK was 1249 days too premature.

It's been more than three years since that post, but a Free JDK is finally here:

Rich Sharple: This week the IcedTea Project reached an important milestone - The latest OpenJDK binary included in Fedora 9 (x86 and x86_64) passes the rigorous Java Test Compatibility Kit (TCK). This means that it provides all the required Java APIs and behaves like any other Java SE 6 implementation - in keeping with the portability goal of the Java platform.

Hopefully, a free JDK will find its way into other Linux distributions, like Debian.