Winter has arrived here in the US. Even here in the normally temperate North Carolina, it's been 5 to 10 degrees below freezing for the last several weeks. A number of local lakes are frozen... or are they?
When you look at a lake with ice on top, it's a lot like looking at a software project that's "doing fine." It's very difficult to tell how thick the ice is. Will it support you? Is it paper thin or six inches thick? Can you walk on it? Or drive a truck on it?
There are a few different ways to understand the ice. You can look at historical data (it's been well below freezing for the last month), run a few experiments ("Joe, you go first!"), or ask a few people who live beside the lake ("It's never safe this time of year.") Or you could just be stupid and drive your truck onto the ice.
Software is very similar. Are you taking a naive approach? "Look! Everything's working. Keep moving forward." Sure, you're not automating builds. Your automated testing coverage is minim