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by Sean McCormack.
Original Post: Do Iraq's Neighbors Really Want Peace?
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It was interesting to watch the reactions by the Arab World regarding Iraq's elections.
Everyone from Egypt to Jordan came forward expressing their support.
Unfortunately, that's far from the case. Secretly, they have no reason to hope
for success. Here's why:
Arab leaders don't want democracy.
Almost the entire Arab world is governed by some variant of a dictatorship or monarchy.
The concept of a truly free and democratic society is a direct challenge to the
long-term viability of these regimes. Arab leaders have no reason to ensure
the ultimate success of democracy in Iraq, since it will eventually lead to their
demise.
Arab leaders don't want a Shiite democracy
The majority of the Arab and Muslim world is Sunni (approx 80%). For a long-time,
Iran has been the only Shiite state in the region - and none of the Arab states want
to see Iran's influence in the region expand. Now, with the Iraqi elections
completed, there is a Shiite majority in the Iraqi leadership, along with a no-show
by Sunni Muslims. This means that there's a very likely possibility that Iraq
will draw closer to Iran, increasing the Shiite influence in the region...and ultimately
Iran's influence.
One commentary noted that Arab leaders are using Iraq as the “Shiite boogeyman
in the closet“ to convince their citizens why democracy is a bad thing.
Arab leaders don't want an Islamic government
The initial Iraqi constitution established itself as government aligned with Islamic
law...in essence an Islamic government (although this wasn't highly publicized, since
we helped to write the interim constitution). Given the current dynamics in
Iraq, the Shiites and Sunnis appear to the be major players in the political sphere.
In areas like Basra, where the clerics have taken control, they've instituted a severe
form of Islamic law, similar to the Taliban's policies.
The Arab leaders (excluding Saudi Arabia) have been fighting any form of
Islamic law for decades. The establishment of an pseudo-Islamic democracy heightens
the chance that a form of Islamic law may be instituted, or give rise to Islamic stirrings
within their own countries. If Iraq draws closer to Iran, this becomes
even more likely. For their own survival, Arab leaders want to avoid any form
of Islamic government...and the election of an essentially Shiite government in Iraq
is cause for concern.
Given the above reasons, it's obvious that the current "support" for Iraq's elections
are nothing more than lip-service on a global stage. It's interesting to note
that really the main proponents of the elections so far have been the US and Iran
- two nations that share no common ideology, but for the reasons mentioned above,
have a profound interest in the success of elections in Iraq.