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Do Iraq's Neighbors Really Want Peace?

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Sean McCormack

Posts: 504
Nickname: adapdev
Registered: Jan, 2005

Sean McCormack is the Lead .NET Architect for Miller Brewing Co. and founder of Adapdev Technologies
Do Iraq's Neighbors Really Want Peace? Posted: Feb 2, 2005 10:21 AM
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It was interesting to watch the reactions by the Arab World regarding Iraq's elections.  Everyone from Egypt to Jordan came forward expressing their support.

Unfortunately, that's far from the case.  Secretly, they have no reason to hope for success.  Here's why:

  1. Arab leaders don't want democracy.

    Almost the entire Arab world is governed by some variant of a dictatorship or monarchy.  The concept of a truly free and democratic society is a direct challenge to the long-term viability of these regimes.  Arab leaders have no reason to ensure the ultimate success of democracy in Iraq, since it will eventually lead to their demise.

  2. Arab leaders don't want a Shiite democracy

    The majority of the Arab and Muslim world is Sunni (approx 80%).  For a long-time, Iran has been the only Shiite state in the region - and none of the Arab states want to see Iran's influence in the region expand.  Now, with the Iraqi elections completed, there is a Shiite majority in the Iraqi leadership, along with a no-show by Sunni Muslims.  This means that there's a very likely possibility that Iraq will draw closer to Iran, increasing the Shiite influence in the region...and ultimately Iran's influence.

    One commentary noted that Arab leaders are using Iraq as the “Shiite boogeyman in the closet“ to convince their citizens why democracy is a bad thing.

  3. Arab leaders don't want an Islamic government

    The initial Iraqi constitution established itself as government aligned with Islamic law...in essence an Islamic government (although this wasn't highly publicized, since we helped to write the interim constitution).  Given the current dynamics in Iraq, the Shiites and Sunnis appear to the be major players in the political sphere.  In areas like Basra, where the clerics have taken control, they've instituted a severe form of Islamic law, similar to the Taliban's policies.

    The Arab leaders (excluding Saudi Arabia) have been fighting any form of Islamic law for decades.  The establishment of an pseudo-Islamic democracy heightens the chance that a form of Islamic law may be instituted, or give rise to Islamic stirrings within their own countries.  If Iraq draws closer to Iran, this becomes even more likely.  For their own survival, Arab leaders want to avoid any form of Islamic government...and the election of an essentially Shiite government in Iraq is cause for concern.

Given the above reasons, it's obvious that the current "support" for Iraq's elections are nothing more than lip-service on a global stage.  It's interesting to note that really the main proponents of the elections so far have been the US and Iran - two nations that share no common ideology, but for the reasons mentioned above, have a profound interest in the success of elections in Iraq.

Read: Do Iraq's Neighbors Really Want Peace?

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