I was in the kitchen, getting breakfast (and lunch) prepared for my daughter, and I thought I'd have a look at the weather channel - they've been calling for snow for a few days, and the forecast tends to be pretty solid this close to the event.

Not today though. They have one of their guys in DC (they like to send them on the road, so they can get "action shots" in the bad weather), and he was talking about the forecast. My ears perked up when he mentioned how it works. They run a number of forecast models, and then, as they get closer to the event in question, their models tend to converge. At that point, they go with the convergence as the forecast. This time, that's not happening.

It happens more often than I might have thought - I can recall a fair number of times when the local weather guy was pretty shaky on which way things were going to go, or simply said he was thinking "A" (while others might be thinking "B"). The models that are in use are better than they were (say, 10 years ago), but they still have a long way to go.

If you like unpredictable things, the weather is still partly in that camp. But hey - snow in Maryland in early December? That would be fun :)