Rob Fahrni links to a few anecdotal "trouble seems to have started" things, and asks:

We all knew things were going to get bad, but has it started?

I think so. I linked to this from Sequoia Capital the other day, and the message that lots of businesses are operating on now is "improve the cash situation". Makes sense, given what the TED Spread has been looking like of late. As that happens, consumers start ramping their spending down as well.

That's classic behavior in a recession, but I think this is different. I was listening to Peter Day this afternoon, and his panel mostly thought that we were entering a new era of tight credit. The thing to bear in mind is that the entire US economy has been based on easy credit for a long, long time now. If that's changing, then things will be extremely difficult for awhile.

Want an example? Have a look at all the "all you need is eyeballs" businesses out there - Twitter comes to mind. Unless they figure out a direct payment model, I can't see a path to survival for them. Advertising? That's going to decline massively for awhile. Twitter is hardly the only such business - heck, all the "upload video free" services are in trouble, too. The days of "eyeballs are enough" are over.

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