I see that Scoble is positively blown away by China:

Americans are being fed only the negative stories about China and that is lulling them into complacency. The largest book store in the world is in Shenzhen. The largest city hall I've ever seen is here. The largest library I've ever been in is here. This is an increasingly educated workforce that's just starting to get going. Americans need to come to China and see what's going on because it is absolutely stunning in its scale.

That's true, to an extent. However, if you look at the history of industrialization, it may not be as rosy as Scoble seems to think - or at least, not be without problems. In the US and in Europe, we had rapid industrialization in the 19th century - and by the early 20th century, we had major labor disruptions, as factory workers got increasingly tired of being treated like cheap, disposable objects. Having read "Will the Boat Sink the Water", I think China is approaching that same situation, but with fewer political tools for dealing with it. There are reports now that a massive number of factories in China are being closed, due to the financial shocks - which has a good chance of setting off labor strife, IMHO.

None of that is to say that China is going to fall backwards - it's just to say that they are not immune to the kinds of shocks felt in the West when we went from agrarian to industrial. China is trying to make that move even faster, which will likely lead to the same kinds of disruptions, for the same kinds of reasons.

I also have a small reservation with this:

What's different today? The Chinese are now cutting out Amazon and are building Websites that you can buy products from directly and they'll ship right to your door.

The thing is, buying is largely about trust. People trust Amazon - will they trust some company they've never heard of? Over time, as that company makes an effort to demonstrate their trustworthiness, sure. In the short term, it's going to be quite difficult. In the brick and mortar world, there's been "factory direct" buying for years - and it's never gone beyond a niche. Why? Because people trust brands that they know.

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