From Daring Fireball Linked List: The Android Surge:

My sense is that over the next 12 to 18 months, Android will surge past Apple the way Microsoft Windows surged past Apple in the 1990s.

— Dan Lyons

Android cannot “surge past Apple [iOS] the way Microsoft Windows surged past Apple [Mac OS] in the 1990s.” Microsoft Windows was positioned as the successor to the incumbent market leader, MS-DOS. That Microsoft was successful in moving the established MS-DOS user base forward to Windows is a notable achievement and it’s a set of circumstances that doesn’t exist for Android.

Android is not standing on the shoulders of an established giant user base.

Comparing Android and iOS to Windows and Mac OS is a bad useless analogy.