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A few years ago I heard programming language people talk about the "Nuclear Winter" in languages caused by Java. The feeling was that everyone had so converged on Java's computational model (C# at that point seen as little more than a rip-off) that creativity in programming languages had disappeared. That feeling is now abating, but perhaps a more important thaw that might be beginning - the longer and deeper freeze in thinking about databases.

Tim Bray's thought-provoking keynote talked about storage; including highlighting several alternatives to the conventional database world

When I started in the software development profession, I worked with several people who had evangelized relational databases. I came across them in the object-oriented world. Many people at that time expected OO databases to be the next evolutionary step for databases. As we now know, that didn't happen. These days relational databases are so deeply embedded that most projects assume an RDBMS right out of the gate.

At QCon last week, there was a strong thread of talks that questioned this assumption. Certainly one that struck me was Tim Bray's keynote, which took a journey through several aspects of data management. In doing so he highlighted a number of interesting projects.

• Drizzle is a form of relational database, but one that eschews much of the machinery of modern relational products. I think of it as a RISC RDBMS - supporting only the bare bones of the relational feature set.
• Couch DB is one of many forays into a distributed key-value pair model. Although a sharply simple data-model (nothing more than a hashmap really) this kind of approach has become quite popular in high-volume websites.
• Gemstone was one of the object database crowd, and I found the Gemstone-Smalltalk combination a very powerful development environment (superior to most of its successors). Gemstone is still around as a niche player, but may gain more traction through Maglev - a project to bring its approach (essentially a fusion of database and virtual machine) to the Ruby world.

As well as this talk, there was a whole track on alternative databases hosted by Kresten Krab Thorup. One of the additional tools mentioned there was Neo4J - a graph (network) database tool that earned some rare praise from Jim Webber.

The natural question to ask about these products is why they should prevail when the ODBMSs failed. What's changed in the environment that could thaw the relational grip? There are many hypotheses about why relational has been so dominant - my opinion is that their dominance is due less to their role in data management than their role in integration.

Kresten Krab Thorup does a great job as a leader of the technical content of the JAOO and QCon conferences.

For many organizations today, the primary pattern for integration is Shared Database Integration - where multiple applications are integrated by all using a common database. When you have these IntegrationDatabases, it's important that all these applications can easily get at this shared data - hence the all important role of SQL. The role of SQL as mostly-standard query language has been central to the dominance of databases.

The heating of the database space comes from the presence of alternatives to integration - in particular the rise of web services. Under various banners there's a growing movement for applications to talk to each other by passing text (mostly XML) documents over HTTP. The web, both in internet and intranet forms, has made this integration mode even more prevalent than SQL. This is a good thing, I've never liked the approach of multiple applications tightly coupled through a common database - you can't get bigger breach of encapsulation than that.

If you switch your integration protocol from SQL to HTTP, it now means you can change databases from being IntegrationDatabases to ApplicationDatabases. This change is profound. In the first step it supports a much simpler approach to object-relational mapping - such as the approach taken by Ruby on Rails. But furthermore it breaks the vice-like grip of the relational data model. If you integrate through HTTP it no longer matters how an application stores its own data, which in turn means an application can choose a data model that makes sense for its own needs.

I don't think this means that relational databases will disappear - after all they are the right choice for many situations. But it does mean that now application developers should think about what the right option is for their needs. As non-relational projects grow in popularity and maturity, more and more will go for other options.