Doc Searls just said something that really made me stop and think:

What if every product category, every business, is a bubble and some just last longer?

He points out that newspapers were a century long bubble that's ending now, and that the golden age of TV is also ending. From there he goes on to cars - where he decided to do a relatively expensive repair rather than buy a new one:

For a minute I thought about getting a new car. They're cheaper than ever, with lots of good deals, and guarantees that would relieve me of the need to pay much for upkeep. But I decided to fix the old car instead, becuase it's good enough. Spending $5k is better than spending $20k, especially if I don't have to borrow the difference.

I made the same call 5 years ago, after my then 14 year old car had a run in with a deer. It ended up needing a new engine (a junkyard one actually), new windshield, and a new radiator. Lots of people told me I should just buy a new car, but heck - it was a whole lot cheaper to fix the car, even with the periodic maintenance I have to do to get it past Maryland emissions checks. I'm still driving it, and it's closing on 20 years now.

I might get a new car soon, but only because my wife needs a decent backup car that won't kill her knees. I don't plan to junk what I'm driving now though - it may be an old car, but I only drive about 5k miles per year, and I don't need much at that rate. What's more interesting is whether other people will stop the 3-5 year car upgrade cycle and start driving their cars into the ground. If that happens, it's going to be a very different car business - and the end of a bubble.

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